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BYU professor says Dayton vs. Michigan NCAA final would drive highest TV ratings

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  • eagle Provo, UT
    March 27, 2014 10:16 p.m.

    Let's see, I thought last year's Louisville vs. Michigan was one of the highest rated games ever. Not exactly Davids there. I think the highest rated game ever was Michigan State vs. Indiana State. I guess one could call Indiana State the David but it did have Larry Bird and it was undefeated.

    I think if Florida would have met say Witchita State, it might have had a similar rating, the undefeated David vs.the powerhouse program.

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 27, 2014 10:53 p.m.

    Since 2000, the HIGHEST rated game was 2010 Duke (Goliath) v Butler (David) with 23.9 million viewers. Last year's Louisville v Michigan was the SECOND highest (23.4 million viewers), but another matchup between big name programs (2009 UNC v Mich St) was only 17.6 million.

  • Who am I sir? Cottonwood Heights, UT
    March 27, 2014 11:05 p.m.

    Obviously giving hope to BYU fans! Can't imagine how a team could be considered a greater Cinderella if they were ever to reach the final four!

  • Rational Salt Lake City, UT
    March 27, 2014 11:46 p.m.

    "On Monday night, March 26, 1979 nearly a quarter of U.S. television sets were tuned to NBC to watch Indiana State (Larry Bird) vs Michigan State (Magic Johnson) play in Salt Lake City’s Special Events Center; the 24.1 rating remains the highest ever rating for a basketball game."

    David vs Goliath

  • Rational Salt Lake City, UT
    March 27, 2014 11:48 p.m.

    Few had seen Bird before this:

    The Michigan State Spartans of the powerful Big Ten conference were led by Earvin “Magic” Johnson, a flashy, gregarious point guard who represented black and urban America. On the other side, the unheralded Indiana State Sycamores had gone 33-0 on the back of Larry Bird, the reclusive “hick from French Lick” who represented white and small town America.

    “You couldn’t have asked for a better dynamic between these two central characters,” said Sports Illustrated writer and CBS analyst Seth Davis to NPR. “On the one hand, they were extremely similar—they were ultimate winners; they were great team players—and yet by the same token, you couldn’t find two guys who were so different on so many fundamental levels, the most obvious being race.”

    Johnson was already billed as the game’s next great star, while Bird, having played just three games on TV and avoiding the media spotlight, was almost a mythical figure. Fans who heard of his exploits tuned in to the title game to see if the “great white hope” was as good as advertised.

  • Fred T PHOENIX, AZ
    March 28, 2014 12:55 a.m.

    The highest would be for the two Miller borthers to coach against each other in the finals.
    That would still allow a Conderella team (Dayton) to play a goliath (Arizona).

    But, the final game will be Virgina against Lousiville (hmm, maybe Wisconsin)
    With Virginia winning it all.

  • MyPerspective Salt Lake City, UT
    March 28, 2014 6:57 a.m.

    Can someone please explain where rating numbers come from? How are these numbers derived and how credible are they? 23.9M viewers, 23.4M viewers...positively determined by what reliable method?

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 7:42 a.m.

    Fred T: Good point! Our model predicts AZ-Dayton as another top game --- there are several ways of getting a big audience. Florida and Virginia are also in the mix because they are in large cities, and Louisville is home to some of the biggest fans of college basketball.

    The two Miller Bros would be a great story!

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 7:52 a.m.

    MyPerspective: Good question! TV ratings come from Nielsen and are based on a complex statistical sample of in-home TV viewing that complies with the standards of the Media Research Council standards. Networks and advertisers use these audience measurements to make programming decisions and agree on advertising costs.

    You can read more if you google "Nielsen TV measurement"

  • Max-was-right springville, UT
    March 28, 2014 8:29 a.m.

    who are U?

    leave it to a poor utie fan to somehow someway yell "look at me, look at me"

  • Y-Ask-Y? Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 9:28 a.m.

    Sean and Archie Miller are a coaching family force to be reckoned with!

  • Solomon Levi Alpine, UT
    March 28, 2014 10:06 a.m.

    Who am I sir?

    Obviously giving angst to Utah fans!

    Remind us the last time both Utah's men's and women's teams played in the Big Dance and at least one of them advanced to the Sweet Sixteen or farther.

    Hint: It hasn't happened during the Dave Rose era.

  • DEW Cougars Sandy, UT
    March 28, 2014 10:10 a.m.

    Off the air antenna (no cable subscriber), are they included in the rating? I always wonder.

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 10:46 a.m.

    DEW Cougar: Good Question! "Over the air" households are in the Nielsen ratings. Their sampling frame is based on residences with TVs (whether over-the-air, cable, satellite, internet). "Nielsen families" are randomly selected from every possible dwelling identified by Nielsen (google maps makes this easier, but there is still pounding the pavement to identify possible households). The viewing not counted by Nielsen would be non-household, such as sports bars and restaurants with TVs.

  • MyPerspective Salt Lake City, UT
    March 28, 2014 11:13 a.m.

    DrGrimshaw
    Provo, UT

    "TV ratings come from Nielsen and are based on a complex statistical sample of in-home TV viewing that complies with the standards of the Media Research Council standards."

    Thanks for your response. Drilling down a bit more, how is the in-home TV viewing determined? Said another way, what is the method and timing for gathering is the sample data? Phone call at the time the target program is aired? Mailing a week later? Channel surfers like me don't really watch anything, lol.

    I'll check out "Nielsen TV measurement" as you suggest and see if I can find the answer to my question, then come back later today.

    Very cool that you are engaged on this thread.

  • DEW Cougars Sandy, UT
    March 28, 2014 11:25 a.m.

    @DrGrimshaw - Wow, that is scary? Why, we are being watch from something every where no matter how you hide. Spooky.

    You think the Nielsen can count how many people are watching (VIEWERS) the game at one tv?

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 11:33 a.m.

    DEW Cougars: Sorry, I didn't make it clear that Nielsen only obtains data from households that agree to be included in the sample. It's not a census where all viewing is observed but a sample. Nielsen is very conscious of privacy concerns and never disclose household-level viewing.

  • Stringer Bell Henderson, NV
    March 28, 2014 12:49 p.m.

    Dr. Grimshaw
    Provo, UT

    "Florida and Virginia are also in the mix because they are in large cities, and Louisville is home to some of the biggest fans of college basketball."

    Maybe living in Provo makes other places seem big. Gainesville and Charlottesville are not large cities.

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 1:01 p.m.

    Stringer Bell: Ha! I meant the TV markets that these schools are popular in, not the smaller college town. You make a fair point about Virginia. When I lived in DC in the 90s, UVa wasn't often on the local sports scene since Maryland and Georgetown basketball were all more successful and closer to the TV studios. Our thinking with this year's prediction was that the DC TV market contains the Virginia suburbs of DC and this has been a good year for Virginia basketball.

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 1:13 p.m.

    MyPerspective: Glad you are interested. I must confess to being somewhat ignorant of the technical details. Often I joke that a miracle occurs and I get data, but it's quite an IT operation to perform that miracle. Households that join the Nielsen sample in the larger TV markets (like SLC) have a meter attached to their TV that monitors any viewing. (The networks include a code with the program that identifies what was watched.) Each night the viewing from a household is uploaded to Nielsen's servers. In smaller markets (like Reno) I think households in the sample are given a diary to record viewing only during "sweeps periods" (4 times a year, each sweeps is about 4 weeks) --- but I don't work with that data and may be completely wrong.

    Bad weather can disrupt this smooth operation, but Nielsen always has it back up running quickly.

  • let's roll LEHI, UT
    March 28, 2014 1:57 p.m.

    I get why David v. Goliath is an attractive match-up and also get that Dayton is the logical David.

    Didn't, however, see any explanation of why Michigan would be a better drawing Goliath than say Arizona, who's been #1 for much of the season.

  • germanygator Apo, AE
    March 28, 2014 2:59 p.m.

    Dayton will lose against Florida on Saturday making this article moot. Go Gators!!!!

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 7:14 p.m.

    let's roll: The "Goliath"s are teams with large local fan bases from big basketball conferences with iconic coaches who are top seeds. This year's Goliaths would be Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Virginia.

  • DrGrimshaw Provo, UT
    March 28, 2014 7:25 p.m.

    germanygator: CBS won't see much of a dip in audience if Florida beats Dayton. As the No 1 Seed Florida gets a boost in the model so a possible Florida v Michigan Final would the "next most popular" game.

  • Hank Jr Draper, UT
    March 29, 2014 11:47 a.m.

    Never mind because it will never happen.

    Bear Down Arizona!