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High school football: Solving the Region 4 playoff scenarios is a Rubik's Cube

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  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 7:33 a.m.

    Region 4 is a mess. This week there are 3 games: Pleasant Grove at Herriman, Lone Peak at Lehi, and Westlake at Riverton. American Fork has finished region play with a 3-3 record. I think Riverton beats Westlake but less certainty on the other 2 games. Below are the 4 possible outcomes (given that Riverton wins). First line lists the teams that would have to win for the standings to finish as they are listed on the lines below.

    Herriman, LP, Riverton
    5-1: Herriman
    4-2: LP, Riverton
    3-3: AF, PG
    2-4: Lehi
    0-6: Westlake

    PG, LP, Riverton
    4-2: Herriman, LP, PG, Riverton
    3-3: AF
    2-4: Lehi
    0-6: Westlake

    Herriman, Lehi, Riverton
    5-1: Herriman
    4-2: Riverton
    3-3: AF, LP, Lehi, PG
    0-6: Westlake

    PG, Lehi, Riverton
    4-2: Herriman, PG, Riverton
    3-3: AF, Lehi, LP
    0-6: Westlake

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 7:38 a.m.

    Continuation of Region 4 discussion. As I understand it, a tie breaker of some sort is used to determine playoff seeding, but if teams would be eliminated from the playoffs using tiebreakers, then a play-in game of some sort is used to determine who goes to the playoffs. Tiebreakers will be required in all scenarios for Region 4 and play-ins in 7 of the 8 possible outcomes. WOW!

    BTW, if Westlake pulls off the upset of Riverton, here are the other 4 possible outcomes:

    Herriman, LP, Westlake
    5-1: Herriman
    4-2: LP
    3-3: AF, PG, Riverton
    2-4: Lehi
    1-5: Westlake

    PG, LP, Westlake
    4-2: Herriman, LP, PG
    3-3: AF, Riverton
    2-4: Lehi
    1-5: Westlake

    Herriman, Lehi, Westlake
    5-1: Herriman
    3-3: AF, LP, Lehi, PG, Riverton
    1-5: Westlake

    PG, Lehi, Westlake
    4-2: Herriman, PG
    3-3: AF, Lehi, LP, Riverton
    1-5: Westlake

    I guess the only thing for certain is that Herriman is in in any scenario. If PG, LP , and Riverton win this week there will be a 4-way tie for first but no play-in. Any other outcomes will require play-ins

  • BigBenzo88 Herriman, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 10:38 a.m.

    Realistically...there are only 4 scenarios left: Herriman/Lone Peak win; Herriman/Lehi win; Pleasant Grove/Lone Peak win and Pleasant Grove/Lehi win.

    Herriman finishes first or tied for first in all 4 scenarios.

    Assuming a Riverton win over Westlake...Riverton finishes second in all scenarios except for one where they are tied for first.

    Lone Peak finishes third in 2 scenarios, tied for third in 1 scenario and tied for fourth in 1 scenario.

    Pleasant Grove finishes fourth in 1 scenario, tied for third in 2 scenarios and tied for first in 1 scenario.

    American Fork is out of the playoffs in 2 scenarios, tied for third in 1 scenario and tied for fourth in 1 scenario. American Fork's problem is that they are finished in region play and their playoff hopes are hinging on a Lone Peak loss and then a play-in/coinflip tie-breaker.

    Lehi is out of the playoffs in 2 scenarios, tied for third in 1 scenario and tied for fourth in 1 scenario...however, unlike American Fork, they play one last region game. A Lehi win at least guarantees them a mix in tie-breaker for the #3 or #4 seed.

  • footballisgood Holladay, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 10:44 a.m.

    Sad thing is, any of the top 6 teams in Region 4 could potentially win Region 2, and two of them will be left out of the playoffs! American Fork is the most interesting team, they are really talented and have beaten the top two teams in the region going in to this week (Herriman, Riverton) and would beat any team in Region 2 by a couple of touchdowns. Not trying to clown on Region 2 here, more just making the point of how competitively unbalanced the regions are.

  • BigBenzo88 Herriman, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 12:47 p.m.

    @footballisgood - You have some good points...however...I think the only change that could really be made would be to split up Region 2 and Region 3. Region 1 and Region 4 really can't be changed very much due to geography.

    This is the reason why I wish Utah would go to a power ranking system for the playoffs. Imagine 1st round games like this using the most recent state rankings:

    Bingham vs Cottonwood
    Herriman vs Pleasant Grove
    Syracuse vs Lehi
    Riverton vs Taylorsville
    Jordan vs American Fork
    Davis vs Hunter
    Lone Peak vs Alta
    Brighton vs Northridge

    Under this, 4 teams would be affected: American Fork and Lehi would make the playoffs where they wouldn't under the current policy and Layton and West would not make the playoffs...where currently they will.

    So, while there is a little bit of unbalance...its not by much. Currently all regions will send 4 teams...under a power ranking system Region 1 would currently send 3, Region 2 would send 3, Region 3 would send 4 and Region 4 would send 6.

    Still...look for an interesting playoffs...I'm picking 2 Region 4 upsets: Pleasant Grove over Davis and Herriman over Brighton!!!

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 1:04 p.m.

    What if Herriman loses to PG, and LP beats Lehi. 4 way tie for first place. You apply some kind of a tiebreaker (e.g. a series of coin flips) an Herriman ends up with the 4th seed and has to go to Davis in the first round. Even though the worst Herriman can do is tie for first, and they are guranteed a spot in the state tournament, they are not necessarily guranteed the #1 seed.

    I think if you want to power rank the teams, you get rid of regions. Give everyone a preseason game against a team from a different classification and then play 8 or 9 games on a rotating schedule to base the power rankings on.

  • adwight AMERICAN FORK, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 1:11 p.m.

    AF can also make the playoffs/playin game if Herriman beats PG. AF is Lehi and Herriman fans this week haha.

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 3:09 p.m.

    Jordan fans are Lehi fans this week. If a region 4 team can upset Davis we get a home game! And the only teams Jordan has lost to at home are #1 and #2 in state!

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 3:12 p.m.

    Or wait, maybe Lone Peak and Pleasant Grove winning would be better.....man this is confusing.

  • BigBenzo88 Herriman, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 4:30 p.m.

    @Parry is a Farce - You have a good point...a Pleasant Grove/Lone Peak win would create a 4-way tie for #1. However, I'm not sure what the tiebreak would be. I believe it would favor Herriman unless its simply a series of coin tosses...here's why: Of the 3 other tied teams...Herriman would have beaten 2 of them (Riverton/Lone Peak). The same holds true for Riverton...they would have beaten 2 of them (Pleasant Grove/Lone Peak). Lone Peak and Pleasant Grove each would only have 1 win out of the 3 (Pleasant Grove over Herriman and Lone Peak over Pleasant Grove). So, if things work out the way I believe...this situation would actually create a tie for first between Herriman and Riverton and then a tie for third between Lone Peak and Pleasant Grove if you use the common opponent tiebreaker. If you then apply head to head as the second tiebreaker you get #1 Herriman, #2 Riverton, #3 Lone Peak, #4 Pleasant Grove.

    @adwight - American Fork can only get into the mix with a Lehi win.

    @JDigger - Pleasant Grove is the team I believe will be #4 seed and that can upset Davis.

  • Jfan Sandy, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 4:49 p.m.

    I agree with JDigger, if anything you want upsets to happen. You also want Lone Peak to lose this week because to be honest I don't think they can beat Davis in the first round. Just what I think but I don't believe it and if LP wins they probly match up with Davis in the first round. Let it be P.G, that is the best case scenario. Although I think Riverton and Herriman can take out Davis too. All you need is an offense that can out up points and Davis plus any region 1 team is in trouble. If that happens Jordan gets a home playoff game in the quarterfinals which would be amazing!

  • binghamalum South Jordan, UT
    Oct. 23, 2013 10:45 p.m.

    All this talk you are all mentioning is for nothing!

    No one will beat Bingham!

    Nuff Said!

    good luck to everyone ! but your all playing to see who plays Bingham in the finals!

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 7:17 a.m.

    binghamalum

    Not "playing to see who plays Bingham in the finals", "playing to see who loses to Bingham in the final"

  • wolvie23 Salt Lake, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 7:55 a.m.

    Bingham enters top 25 in USA Today's High School Football poll! Way to put Utah on the map Miners!!!

  • adwight AMERICAN FORK, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 8:33 a.m.

    Benzo you are mistaken. Teams will never be eliminated from the playoffs for having the same record as another team, even if the other team beat them in the regular season (I just read the region handbook). If PG loses, that would give PG 3 region losses (LP, Riverton, Herriman). Their 3-3 record would be identical to AF's (losses to LP, Lehi, PG), so they would play each other for the 4 seed.

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 10:46 a.m.

    Jfan- I agree that Pleasant Grove could upset Davis but I believe Lone Peak can as well. But even better than that would be Riverton or Herriman falling to 4th in the coin flips. I think either of those teams stand a great chance at knocking off the Darts. Thinking even further ahead, I don't think Ive ever seen the diggers play Riverton.....might be fun to see them on the road to RES

  • BigBenzo88 Herriman, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 10:47 a.m.

    @binghamalum - I believe that Bingham is the best team in Utah...however I'm not as convinced as to their level of dominance as you are and don't believe they are above being beaten. Herriman lost to Bingham by 13 and Brighton lost to Bingham by 11...I'm sure both teams would love a rematch.

    @Parry is a Farce - I believe any team in 5A can be beaten...and that includes Bingham.

    @adwight - I stand corrected...I just now read the Region 4 handbook. The best scenario for American Fork is also the best scenario for Herriman...which is a Herriman/Lone Peak win. It gives Herriman #1, Riverton #2, Lone Peak #3 (no coin toss needed due to head to head) and a game between Pleasant Grove and American Fork for the #4 seed. The worst case scenario for American Fork would be Pleasant Grove/Lone Peak win which would leave American Fork completely out. Herriman would actually be the first seed 3 of the 4 scenarios with a Pleaant Grove/Lehi win being its worst possibility due to the fact that 3 teams would coinflip for seeds #1, #2 and #3.

    We'll all know by the end of tonight!!!

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 11:11 a.m.

    BigBen- Your thoughts on Bingham are spot on. I actually that there are 4 or 5 teams that if they put together a great game and Bingham has a few critical mistakes could win. They are the best but definitely beatable!

  • goaggies1 Clinton/Davis, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 12:26 p.m.

    Hey you guys are starting to make sense. Bingham is very beatable as well as every one else. Tonights game with Alta and Bingham. Should be a great game and a prelude to next Friday nights games. What would Bingham do if Nickols got hurt tonight? Who is their next go to guy? Shultz? Im just asking because that's pretty much the face of Bingham football this year? Jordan is scary because they score pretty quick but their defense cant hold water. Brighton looks big and athletic. Herriman is also a big team. Pleasant Grove is big up front but their defense has big holes for short passes all day long. My biggest questions are about Bingham and a exit plan if Nickols goes down? Can you guys enlighten us. That would be cool.

  • 5A Football Man Layton , UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 1:05 p.m.

    It's going to be Alta and Bingham and Jordan and Brighton in the final four. I have seen all the 5A teams play this year and I bet it will be those four. They look the best right now. The reason why I put Alta there is because how the bracket lines up for them.

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 2:13 p.m.

    LOL so all region 3 RES, that would be awesome! Do you think the USHAA would plan another restructure or would they just let it go?

  • Jfan Sandy, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 2:29 p.m.

    I don't know if that is a possibility though. LP is on a down year, just like Alta and I don't think they could put up enough points on the board to beat Davis. Riverton definitely can, and obviously Pleasant Grove can too. I will definitely be score board watching tonight to see how it all plays out. Fun night ahead!

    @ 5A football- I could see that possibility. Alta's offense is really good and that just might carry them to RES. Maybe not though, Taylorsville isn't an easy out in the first round

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 3:26 p.m.

    If you take the Parry numbers from this week, he agrees with 5A Football man. He ranks 5A:

    Bingham
    Brighton
    Jordan
    Alta
    Riverton
    Syracuse
    Herriman
    Davis
    Lone Peak
    Pleasant Grove
    American Fork
    Northridge
    layton
    Lehi
    Cottonwood
    Hunter
    Weber
    Fremont
    West Jordan
    Taylorsville
    Westlake
    Copper Hills
    West
    Viewmont
    Granger
    Hillcrest

  • BigBenzo88 Herriman, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 4:30 p.m.

    @JDigger24 - I'm just not seeing an all Region 3 semifinals at RES. I will say they have the best chance of any region of pulling it off. I believe Brighton gets tripped up when they have to travel to Herriman in the quarterfinals and believe Alta gets tripped up when they travel to Syracuse. Herriman vs Jordan and Syracuse vs Bingham is what I see.

    @Parry is a Farce - I would concur as well with 5A Football man and Parry's power rankings. It almost goes hand in hand with my belief that Region 1 only advances Syracuse to the quarterfinals, Region 2 advances none to the quarterfinals, Region 3 advances 4 to the quarterfinals and Region 4 advances Herriman, Riverton and Pleasant Grove to the quarterfinals. Your list is spot on...I would only switch Pleasant Grove and Davis on that list.

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 4:51 p.m.

    Taylorsville seems really low and Syracuse seems really high......

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 10:11 p.m.

    Not my list. That is just listing the scores that Parry awards. I'm not Noland Parry, I just have some beefs with his system.

    I agree with JDigger24, Syracuse seems high and Taylorsville seems low. The fact that Taylorsville has beaten Hunter and Cottonwood and will win that region yet is ranked below Hunter and Cottonwood is the kind of beef I have. At the start of the season I'd have put Hunter and Cottonwood (and West and Granger) ahead of Taylorsville. But not now and the Parry system does not make those kind of corrections.

    Parry had Jordan ranked #1 for the first 2 or 3 weeks and only this week did they drop out of the #2 spot. I think they should have dropped quicker, especially after Brighton beat them. Jordan got ranked high early based on last year and stayed there despite losing.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Oct. 24, 2013 10:13 p.m.

    Looks like a 4-way tie for first.

  • goaggies1 Clinton/Davis, UT
    Oct. 25, 2013 8:55 a.m.

    JDigger24, Hey a few of you gentleman on this thread have wondered why Taylorsville is lower than some schools like Syracuse. Let me try and shed some light on that subject for some of ya. You cant say since one team is the best in their region means they are better than other teams in other regions. You need to look at schedule and the other teams that have played or even common opponents. Parry looks at all those things when he makes his rankings. I have seen it said here that region 2 is week and people don't think anyone of there teams wont advance past the first round. So looking at all those teams and their records I can see why they are ranked the wat they are. Would Alta win region 2 out right if they were in that region? Probably. It just makes sense with the rankings. That's not to say region 2 isn't very good. They just aren't as tough as some of the other regions. Are there week teams in all regions? Sure there is. But that's why we still play the games each week. Parry your awesome. Keep it up.

  • Prep Fan 89 Draper, UT
    Oct. 25, 2013 9:03 a.m.

    Would Alta win Region 2 outright if they were in their region? Um yeah, they would beat every team in that region by 4-5 touchdowns. It is the worst 5A region in the history of the UHSAA! If you took that region and had them play in 4A they are still below average, they would struggle in 3A too.

  • goaggies1 Clinton/Davis, UT
    Oct. 25, 2013 9:17 a.m.

    I just had to pose the question. Some teams are just not that good. That's why some are lower and some higher.