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New polls temper Obama bounce assumptions after convention

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  • patriot Cedar Hills, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 10:41 a.m.

    It was just revealed today that the latest CNN poll which showed Obama leading was a completely bogus poll. Democrat's were oversampled 33% to only 27% for Republicans and an even smaller percentage of Independents. Why did CNN over sample like this?? Obviously to dis-spirit conservatives. Keep in mind here that had the CNN poll been legit with an equal percentage of Democrats vs Republicans and at least a more representative and higher percent of Independents then Romney would be leading by as much as 8 percentage points. Independents favor Romney 50-44 percent nationally in almost every poll taken.

    These polls are bogus and you simply CAN'T look at the raw percentages - you have to look at the distribution percentages (how many democrats vs how many republicans) otherwise the poll has no value and is completely useless.

    A final fact - almost every poll over samples Democrats - not quite the extent that CNN did but close. These little political games are all part of the pro Obama media cover.

  • Rifleman Salt Lake City, Utah
    Sept. 11, 2012 11:24 a.m.

    What Obama is looking for are polls run Chicago style. Probably why they got mad at Gallop for no coming up with the "right" numbers a while back.

  • patriot Cedar Hills, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 11:30 a.m.

    When I see a poll that has an equal and FAIR distribution of Democrats vs Republicans and a representative distribution of Independents THEN I will pay attention to the poll.... otherwise it is just so much liberal "feel good" baloney.

  • ute alumni Tengoku, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 11:32 a.m.

    on only bounce obama will get is the one that comes in November and bounces him out of office in January.

  • Fred44 Salt Lake City, Utah
    Sept. 11, 2012 11:43 a.m.

    Patriot,

    You say "these polls are bogus" but you also say that "independents favor Romney 50-44 percent nationally in almost every poll taken". I am confused, are you saying these polls are bogus except the part of the poll that has Romney leading with independents?

    Could you share with me exactly what percentage of the country is democrat, which percentage is republican and which percentage is independent? Could you also share with me by state how many from each of those groups will vote in November? With that information I think I can design an unbiased poll. Until then they will all have their flaws.

    The republicans need to give up the liberal media conspiracy theory and get a candidate that gives people a reason to vote for them. If the republicans lose this election, and as of right now it looks like they will they have no one to blame but themselves. The economy is in the toilet, there are democrats who like with Ronald Reagan would like to vote for a republican if they believed it was a better alternative. All the republican whining isn't going to lead to a victory in November.

  • xscribe Colorado Springs, CO
    Sept. 11, 2012 12:01 p.m.

    Is anyone else getting tired of seeing these poll results every week? How about some debates instead!

  • atl134 Salt Lake City, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 12:32 p.m.

    @patriot
    "When I see a poll that has an equal and FAIR distribution of Democrats vs Republican"

    Actually, we don't want polling to have an equal distribution of D's vs R's. We want polling to adequately represent the actual distribution of D's vs R's, whatever that is (it's not necessarily even).

  • Henry Drummond San Jose, CA
    Sept. 11, 2012 12:34 p.m.

    @xscribe

    I agree with you. All the analysis about polls is getting kind of silly. From what I've seen, if a poll favors the candidate you like then it must be right. If it doesn't then the pollster's sample must have been biased.

  • Rifleman Salt Lake City, Utah
    Sept. 11, 2012 12:40 p.m.

    Re: xscribe Colorado Springs, CO
    "How about some debates instead!"

    How will hearing either candidate regurgitate what he thinks you want to hear change the decision you've already made on who you'll vote for? Yes, the debates will certainly sway some voters but certainly not you and definitely not me.

  • Palintram Holladay, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 12:49 p.m.

    "Less useful is a new CNN/ORC poll, which shows Obama leading Romney 52 to 46 percent"

    I love how you guys report the news, it's so slanted I can't even stay on the page :)

  • no fit in SG St.George, Utah
    Sept. 11, 2012 1:53 p.m.

    There is a different feel to the campaigns this week.
    Fear is inching it's way into Mitt Romney's life. He again is backtracking, flip flopping, making strange accusations. Time is running out for him. Voters can see this. Voters can see how besides amassing a fortune, his other goal was to be President of the United States. However, Romney's quest does not come with the study and work required of the leader of our nation. Romney wishes to borrow policies and ideas from others. He does not wish to do the work required of the President. He has hoped his good looks, and promise of "just trust me", and "wait and I will tell you my plan as soon as I am President", will suffice. He hopes we little people will crown him as our King. The massive amounts of money may not give him the kingdom, after all.

  • jeanie orem, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 2:30 p.m.

    No Fit In SC

    This voter dosen't see that. Your characterization of Romney is wrong to this voter and likely many others.

  • xscribe Colorado Springs, CO
    Sept. 11, 2012 2:51 p.m.

    Rifleman: You are correct! But at least we can listen to the candidates duke it out with each other instead of the lies they put in commercials. Although I fear this year it will be a continuation of the blame game for both sides, and nothing substantive will come out of either candidate's mouth. Probably won't get rid of the polls, either; most likely will produce more polls! Yay! Can't wait for November to be over, either way. America has shown it lives on despite who becomes president.

  • worf Mcallen, TX
    Sept. 11, 2012 3:54 p.m.

    With Clinton's infidelity, and truth telling record, why did Obama need him to boost his campaign?

  • CHS 85 Sandy, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 4:19 p.m.

    Since when did we start electing the President by popular vote? Remember 2000?

    @worf, Do you really want to start in with the infidelity and truth telling game?

  • FT salt lake city, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 4:20 p.m.

    National polls mean nothing. It will come down to 8 swing states and Obama is leading and trending strong in 7 of those. Romeny did break this past week when he came out to say he would keep certain elements of Obama care. If you see more moves to the "center" it is a strong indication that the Romney camp's internal numbers indicate a loss unless he redefines, or changes, his positions. His "etch a sketch" tendacies were one of the main reasons why he was such a miserable Govenor. He only had a 35% approval rating when he left office after one term in Massachuetts. He needs more than the anti Obama vote to win the election but his own political record and character are such that is unlikely he will do so.

  • tlott Lowndes, GA
    Sept. 11, 2012 6:27 p.m.

    I am a Republican and a Romney Supporter but I am concerned about the polls and how college students at CNN don't care about the employment rate since they all blame President Bush for the economy and the employment rate and not Obama. I really hope Mitt Romney needs to be more clear about his plan to create jobs and turn our economy around. From everyone blogging on Yahoo and CNN sites the people supporting Obama say Romney needs to give complete details that everyone who are undecided can make a inform decision. I know Romney don't want to share those other tax returns but I think this is hurting him too. Romney should not be afraid of sharing with the Republic his tax returns. I just want the best outcome for Romney going into the debates. God bless Romney and I hope he can clear up some confusion for undecided voter.

  • worf Mcallen, TX
    Sept. 11, 2012 9:01 p.m.

    CHS 85,

    What kind of expectations do you have for people who lead our country?

    I don't consider this a game. I feel a man who cheats on his wife, will cheat on his country.

    Again!--" why did Obama need Bill Clinton to boost his campaign?"

  • patriot Cedar Hills, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 9:21 p.m.

    re:Fred44 and alt134

    First ALL polls nationwide show Romney leading with Independents - most showing 55-40 percent. I was actually 5% off. Not sure what you are talking about Fred44 because there is NO comparison here - this is just sampling independent voters.... not that hard. The higher the number polled the better the numbers are for Romney. Check it out of for yourself. Now to the second point for both of you guys. Yes it would be nice to know what the percent of registered Democrats vs registered Republicans that actually vote in the election but there is NO way to know what that is exactly especially this election. You can't compare to 2008 either since Democrats if anything are less likely to have high numbers due to the dismal performance of Obama and the disenchantment of some compared to 2008. So what you do is do EQUAL sampling and then add independents as well. CNN only sampled only 4% independents which is not EVEN CLOSE to actual percentages that normally vote and they did that on purpose since Independents largely favor Romney by 14 percent...a HUGE gap. It's not that hard guys.

  • CHS 85 Sandy, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 9:47 p.m.

    @patriot

    Let me ask again - when was the last time a President was elected by popular vote? All the polls in the world don't matter at all. If Utah votes 80% for Romney, do they get more elector votes?

  • There You Go Again Saint George, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 11:11 p.m.

    Listen to or read information that confirm your bias.
    Talk to people who confirm your bias.
    Believe in polls that confirm your bias.
    Bias confirmed.
    Perfect.

  • Steve C. Warren WEST VALLEY CITY, UT
    Sept. 11, 2012 11:16 p.m.

    Romney may be at his high-water mark in the polls. That's because he and Ryan, because of their evasiveness and deceptiveness on issues, must constantly explain themselves. With so much to explain, the debates could be a disaster for them. As Romney tries to drift toward the middle, Ryan becomes a real albatross.

    I don't expect Romney to do any better than McCain on Election Day, perhaps worse.

  • Mike in Cedar City Cedar City, Utah
    Sept. 12, 2012 7:12 a.m.

    Seems to me this just an attempt by the biased Deseret News to put lipstick on the preverbial pig. Simple fact, Romney got no "bounce" and Obama did.

  • FT salt lake city, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 8:02 a.m.

    @CHS 85
    You're talking to people without ears.

  • CHS 85 Sandy, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 8:31 a.m.

    @worf

    Why did Mitt Romney need an old Hollywood actor, who has seven children by five different women, to boost his campaign?

    Pot, meet kettle.

    BTW, Bill Clinton is no longer holding public office. As I recall, he was impeached while he was President, led by the cavalry charge of a man who was managing his own extramarital affair.

  • Fred44 Salt Lake City, Utah
    Sept. 12, 2012 8:36 a.m.

    Patriot,

    You are right it isn't that hard, you want the numbers of participants in the poll to reflect where you think the country is, and you wan't them to vote in the poll the way you think they should vote, and then Mr. Romney will have the lead. I understand perfectly. What I am saying is the polls don't matter and the far right will wake up on November 7th having lost another election screaming media bias, left wing conspiracy, politics of hate and destruction and all the other excuses they currently use rather than admit that you cannot seal the deal with the American people even when the economy is garbage.

    Bottom line the republicans need to look at who the run for the office of President, and the politics they force that person into supporting, because not enough of America is buying it to elect your guy, and polls aren't the reason.

  • Rifleman Salt Lake City, Utah
    Sept. 12, 2012 8:47 a.m.

    Re: FT salt lake city, UT
    "@CHS 85 You're talking to people without ears."

    It isn't the people without ears you should be worried about. It is the people going to the voting booth in November that should have you worried. I doubt the killing of the US Ambassador to Libya is going to win Obama any friends in light of the fact he gave billions of taxpayer dollars to our "friends" over there.

  • FT salt lake city, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 11:55 a.m.

    @Rifleman
    Republicans are doing their best to suppress the vote and keep those people you worry about from going into the voting booth. While you may not be concerned with voter suppresion with those of who you differ from, beware, because the next group in power may try suppress your vote. I'll take a flawed democracy any day over a country that denies those of different socio economic backgrounds the same freedoms we enjoy.

  • LDS Liberal Farmington, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 12:07 p.m.

    GWBush showed the World that polls and votes don't matter.

    The Electoral College elects the POTUS.

    Obama = 332
    Romney = 206

    270 is needed to win.

    Enjoy the show.

  • casual observer Salt Lake City, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 2:28 p.m.

    Lots of Hollywood and not much substance - that was the Obama convention. He had better give us a program to vote for and not just the campaign slogan "four more years."

  • patriot Cedar Hills, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 3:10 p.m.

    re:CHS 85

    All polls show are trends - nothing more. However for even the trend to be somewhat reflective of reality the poll must attempt to NOT over sample - or pad the numbers - of one candidate or the other as CNN did and as NBC ALWAYS does. The poll must attempt to be even handed. Again - polls are just trend indicators and nothing more but only if the polls are fair and balanced. If u want to try a poll that is at least somewhat accurate try the Rasmussen Poll.

  • LDS Liberal Farmington, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 4:23 p.m.

    patriot
    Cedar Hills, UT
    re:CHS 85

    If u want to try a poll that is at least somewhat accurate try the Rasmussen Poll.

    3:10 p.m. Sept. 12, 2012

    ========

    HaHaHa! ...LOL, ROTF....snort!..giggle, giggle...

    You ARE just joking, ....aren't 'ya?...just kidd'in?...right?

  • atl134 Salt Lake City, UT
    Sept. 12, 2012 4:25 p.m.

    @patriot
    In a Fox News poll released today Obama was up 44-39 among independents with 17% undecided.

  • MoJules Florissant, MO
    Sept. 12, 2012 5:02 p.m.

    I wish that all the polls had the same standard, make all of them now those who are expected to vote and what party they are part of. It would sure make them more interesting to see how each group would vote today.