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Parry's Power Guide to Utah high school football: Week 12, the playoffs

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  • Theref Riverton, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 9:25 a.m.

    Looks from here. I also believe that it will be an all Region 3 semi-finals.

  • UtahBruin Saratoga Springs, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 10:45 a.m.

    As for Edwards Edge, I only disagree with two.

    I think Morgan beats Manti, and I think Desert Hills beats Stansbury. However, that is a long way to travel for DH and rematch and beat Stansbury twice in a year.

    The rest I agree with for Edwards Edge!

  • UtahBruin Saratoga Springs, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 11:16 a.m.

    I wish we could see an overall State Champion. Some fairly accurate hypothetical picks per say. Just don't allow so many teams who shouldn't be there into the playoffs, and you could keep closely the same amount of games. Imagine more of this:

    3A Champ Judge Memorial
    3AA Champ Juan Diego
    4A East
    5A Bingham

    #4 Seed (11-2) Judge Memorial vs #1 (14-0) Seed Bingham
    #3 Seed (13-0) Juan Diego vs #2 Seed (14-0) East

    Utah State Championship

    5A #1 Bingham (15-0) vs. 4A #2 East (15-0)

    Points Scored - Bingham 447, East 559
    Points Against - Bingham 158, East 171

    Common Opponents:

    Alta - Bingham wins 33-27, 6 point win Week Ten, East Wins 42-24, 16 point win Week One
    Jordan - Bingham wins 48-27, 21 point win Week 8, East Wins 59-36, 23 point win Week Three

    That would be a great game to watch, Bingham vs. East

  • Pig Skin Fan Syracuse, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 11:25 a.m.

    As expencted Region 3 sweeps Region 4. Bingham and East wins State.

  • Old ball coach Sandy, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 11:38 a.m.

    Don't sleep on Timpview....they are going about their business and nobody is talking about them. I think they would give Bingham and East a tough game, if not win it.

    4A- Timpview
    5A- Bingham

  • Gunner South Jordan, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 11:42 a.m.

    Only a 9 pt margin for Bingham over Riverton? Add another 14 pts to that and it's about right.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 12:40 p.m.

    Bingham started the year with a 121.2 rating. They have gone 11-0 to this point and for beating everyone they have played, their rating has dropped to 116.6.

    Brighton started the year rated 95.2. They have gone 10-1, losing only to Bingham by 11 and yet their rating has climbed to 116.6. When Bingham and Brighton meet in the final, Parry will have Brighton favored by 3 points and that makes no sense.

    Herriman was 1-1 after 2 weeks, 2-2 after 4 weeks, 3-3 after 6 weeks, 4-4 after 8 weeks, 5-5 after 10 weeks. See a pattern there? Hint, this is week 12 and despite Benzo’s assurances, I think that Herriman concludes as the .500 team they are.

    I think Lone Peak has a shot, but to me it looks like and all Region 3 affair next week at RES.

    I agree with Gunner too, Bingham will beat Riverton by at least double the 9 that Parry predicts.

  • Gunner South Jordan, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 12:52 p.m.

    Exactly. How does Bingham drop in rating points? Having gone undefeated, and beating 4 of the remaining 8 teams in the playoffs. Somebody's formula needs to be adjusted. And I totally agree with the Herriman comment. Brighton shows everybody that this Herriman team, although a scrappy team, is really mediocre when it comes to pure talent.

  • podunk utah DRAPER, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 1:03 p.m.

    don't worry about Parry's rating points for Bingham, they will win this one going away. Just worry about the W's

  • BigBenzo88 Herriman, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 1:19 p.m.

    @Parry is a Farce - Always enjoy your statistical research. Here's the thing: The line between Herriman being 6-6 or 11-1 after this week is very thin. Herriman has 5 losses by a total of 42 points which is a margin of 8.4 points. 3 losses were by 4 points or less, 1 to the best team in the state. So there's a good chance Herriman could lose, there's an equally good chance they win. Brighton's running style plays into Herriman's strength. Regardless of the winner...this game is decided by 14 points or less.

    Alta at Lone Peak
    Pleasant Grove at Jordan
    Brighton at Herriman

    Lone Peak & their QB are playing better. Playing at home gives them the slight "upset".

    Pleasant Grove & Jordan are very similar teams. Both have offenses that are equally lethal. Defensive edge goes to Pleasant Grove. PG does just enough to keep the game close and win the game on the final drive.

    Brighton & Herriman is a closer match up. Brighton has a powerful O-Line and a powerful running back. Herriman has an elusive running back that creates points. Look for a game that is finally won at home by Herriman.

  • johnny pigskin Sandy, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 3:23 p.m.

    Benzo, Bingham wins by 14 or more, Jordan wins by 14 or more, Alta wins by 14 or more and Brighton wins by 7

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 4:05 p.m.

    Ben,

    Everyone who is .500 was just a point here or a fumble there from being 11-1. 11-1 teams are 11-1 because they make those plays and score those points to pull out those wins. 5-5 teams are 5-5 because they don't.

    "So there's a good chance Herriman could lose, there's an equally good chance they win."

    I disagree. There IS a good chance they lose. There is a chance they win but not an "equal chance". I think things favor Brighton. I'd say 70% Brighton, 30% Herriman - that's not equal.

    Please understand, I played at Bingham When Riverton and Bluffdale and Herriman all went to Bingham. I am west side and I hope Herriman wins. I just think that they are a .500 team playing a .900 team and I think that the .900 team wins.

    Go to the "High School Football: State Tournament Pairings" Comments and read my comment there on how well 5-5 teams have done in the 5A playoffs. .500 teams do not typically make it to RES. I think that Herriman continues that trend.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 4:14 p.m.

    After reading Mr. Felt's column, you gotta favor Lone Peak and Pleasant Grove given how many teams without winning records have made it to RES in 5A. Alta was 4-5, and Jordan was 5-5 this year so history says that they do not get there either. I guess it is a good thing they play the games.

  • Gunner South Jordan, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 7:42 p.m.

    I agree with almost 100% of your assessment Parry. Especially with your statement of why 5-5 teams are 5-5, and why 11-1 teams are 11-1. As for the teams making it with 5-5 records, I almost 100% agree. But I do think Alta is a bit different. They have a very explosive offense. And I think they are coming together some at the right time. I think they pull this one out. Jordan I'm not so sure about. If they had showed any bit of defense this year, I would say Jordan for sure. But that defense is so bad, I can see them giving up enough points to lose. My call still is a 4-0 record for region 3 after the quarters. But I could see Jordan losing. I think Brighton wins by at least 14.

  • Pig Skin Fan Syracuse, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 8:26 p.m.

    Brighton and Herriman will not be close. Brighton beats Herriman by 17 points.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 7, 2013 11:09 p.m.

    Gunner,

    "As for the teams making it with 5-5 records, I almost 100% agree."

    Of the 80 teams who have made it to RES in the 20 years that there has been 5A football (this is the 21st year of 5A), only Skyline in 2005 (5-5) and Hunter in 1998 (4-5) made it to RES after entering the playoffs with a non-winning record. 78 of 80 were over .500. All I was saying in my second post is that only 2.5% of the teams who have ever made it to RES in 5A started the playoffs without a winning record, so history is against Alta, Jordan, and Herriman tomorrow. .

    That said, I still think Jordan and Alta win.

  • JDigger24 Sandy, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 9:43 a.m.

    Jordan kills pleasant grove. If they had played Jordan's schedule, they would have gone 2-8. Maybe 3-7.

  • SportsFan1 South Jordan, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 11:52 a.m.

    I love how so many are counting Herriman out, we like it that way. Nothing to justify at this point, records don't matter or rankings. It is the playoffs so its a new season.
    I hope Brighton over looks Herriman and all of the Region 3 teams do the same. Region 4 will not be swept. I will start my talking after the games are complete. Nothing against Brighton, however the only quality win was against Alta. Herriman's tougher schedule will pay off now.

  • UtahBruin Saratoga Springs, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 12:02 p.m.

    @JDigger

    Well let's see...

    PG vs Fremont - Same result, PG wins big. 1-0
    PG vs Cathedral Catholic Calif. - Same result, PG loses. 1-1
    PG vs. East - Same result, PG loses. 1-2
    PG vs. Bergen Cath. NJ - Same result, PG loses. 1-3
    PG vs Herriman - Same result, PG wins. 2-3
    PG vs. Copper Hills - Same result, PG wins. 3-3
    PG vs. Alta - I am going to say same result, PG wins. 4-3 (*Only thing I have to go off of is Timprview beat Alta, and PG beat Timpview.
    PG vs. Bingham - Same result, PG loses. 4-4
    PG vs. Brighton - Same result, PG loses. 4-5
    PG vs West Jordan - Same result, PG wins. 5-5
    PG vs. Hunter - Same result, PG wins. 6-5

    PG scores almost as much as Jordan, they give up less. And what do you know, PG would have been 6-5, just like Jordan is. I would love to think who else they would have lost the 3 or 4 other games too that Jordan didn't also.

    If Jordan played PG's schedule, I venture to say they have the same record also as PG.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 12:55 p.m.

    @SportsFan1

    "I love how so many are counting Herriman out, we like it that way. Nothing to justify at this point, records don't matter or rankings. It is the playoffs so its a new season."

    You are right that records and rankings don't matter at this point. That is the beauty of the playoffs.

    However, I love how everyone in the southwest corner of the valley (well at least you and Benzo) wants us to throw out what we have observed over the last 12 weeks and bow at the alter of the Herriman Mustangs. I've observed that for every game Herriman wins, they lose one (maybe they break that streak today, I hope so, but I doubt it). I've also opserved Brighton beats nearly everyone placed in front of them, I think that continues today too.

    No disrespect to Herriman, but the evidence suggests that Brighton wins today. Of course they need to play the game to be sure, but looks like Brighton should win this easily.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 12:58 p.m.

    I decided to take a minute and look at common opponents between Herriman and Brighton.

    Herriman and Brighton have played 11 games each. Of those, they have 4 common opponents, against which Brighton went 3-1 and Herriman went 1-3. Herriman had 3 of those games against common opponents at home while Brighton had 2. Brighton’s average score against those 4 is 39.25 to 23.5 (+15.75), Herriman’s is 32.25 to 34.75 (-2.5).

    Individually (@ indicates home game),
    Bingham: Brighton lost by 11, @Herriman lost by 13
    Jordan: @Brighton won by 13, @Herriman lost by 22
    American Fork: @Brighton won by 13, Herriman lost by 2
    West Jordan: Brighton won by 48, @Herriman won by 27

    I subscribe to the idea that once the game starts, all these stats are meaningless. Hope Herriman wins, but just do not see it.

  • SportsFan1 South Jordan, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 1:44 p.m.

    Parry is a Farce ?

    That is the point, Brighton has not played anyone other that Alta and Bingham, They are 1-1. What evidence do you have to say an easy win for Brighton, None ! Other than record ?

  • tharef Riverton, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 2:39 p.m.

    Well I'm off to Bingham, Get the referee pre game talked about, go over Keys, Situational plays, Overtime, Ejections, Sideline control, Mechanics, Untimed downs and all the good stuff that us Refs watch for in a game. Enjoy your teams game and I hope everyone's team wins tonight. Good Luck, and oh ya Go Diggers GDP!

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 5:50 p.m.

    Didn't say easy win. Just think Brighton wins it based on what they have done over the course of the season. Brighton won nearly all their games. Herriman won half theirs. Common opponents, Brighton showed better against everyone of them. I hope Herriman wins, don't think they will based on what has happened the last 11 weeks.

  • Parry is a Farce Layton, UT
    Nov. 8, 2013 9:24 p.m.

    My bad, I did say easily. And it wasn't. But after 12 games, Herriman is 6-6.

    And what happened to Alta? Congrats to Lone Peak on an impressive win