A housing recovery won't occur until people are paid a decent living wage
whereby they can afford to purchase a house.
To be sure, housing is a part of wider economy. But it is somewhat of a trailer
for the non-housing economy. Whenever I have seen an economy too dependent on
housing, it indicates a bubble. Housing will recover with the wider economy but
will likely lag the non-housing sectors a bit.
That's a bit like saying, "The patient won't get over their
sickness until their fever breaks." Like others have commented on here, the
housing market is dependent on the greater economy (or at least should be.) Our
over-dependence on the housing market is what led to our economic downturn to
begin with. When wages start going up, and job security is more sure, then the
housing market will rebound.
Housing is still overpriced. QE3 is going to make things even worse because
it's basically subsidizing another real estate bubble in an attempt to
artificially revive the economy.
I you study economic history you will find that recessions precipitated by a
banking crisis are always far deeper and longer than typical business-cycle
recessions. Typically growth stays low and unemployment stays high for a full
decade after the crisis. That means we're at about the half-way point in
our current recession. The fact that we're starting to see some growth is
excellent, but we're not out of the woods yet.
If our recovery is dependent on a housing recovery, we should be glad barney
frank, the precipitator of the housing and economic collapse, is retiring from
congress.Roland,the current BO-extended and exascerbated
economic malaise and the late 1980s - early 1990s economic troubles were caused
by real estate issues, financed by the banks. Real estate became overpriced in
the late 80's-early 90's and gave us the S&L crises. 2006-8 gave
us a massive real estate bubble, with RE prices much more out of line than they
were in the 80s and 90s, thanks to the artificial stimulus provided by
barney's "everybody who wants a house should have one, even if they
cannot afford it" push on fannie and freddie to eliminate lending
standards.So, you may be correct about the length of time it takes
to recover from a banking crisis, but let's not forget that the last two
were caused by the RE market.
This is from Daily Finance:"The National Association of Realtors
reports that over the 12 months ended in March, nearly 9% of all real estate
purchases in the U.S. (by dollar value) were made by buyers abroad. In some
markets, real estate professionals are seeing foreign buying at rates more than
twice as fast. One real estate agent in Chicago, for example, observed that 20%
of the deals he's closed so far this year involved buyers from Canada,
Australia, and elsewhere."Americans are simply tapped out.
Foreign buyers and other speculators are about the only ones willing to lay down
cash for housing these days. This is how wealth accumulates into the hands of
the super-rich. You can thank the Federal Reserve and their bankster mafia for
any "improvement" in the housing market.
Housing needs to be the most unattainable goal there is. At least from an
ownership standpoint. My American home was a relatively easy cash purchase. My
house at home, in canada, was an ordeal between my wife and I and a bank ran by
gruff old scotsmen, with whom I shall have a lifelong relationship. They will
suffer no fools, nor the underqualified. I hope the US housing market gets there
someday. Here, I am pretty much entitled to home ownership. Back home in canada,
I am not. However, my bank will steadfastly remain solvent. And those who should
own homes, will do so.
How exactly is a housing recovery going to EVER occur while unemployment is so
high? How is unemployment going to go down as long a business has high taxes and
regulations... going higher after Obamacare kicks in fully. So I think the
answer here is ... don't expect any recovery of any kind with Obama in
charge... just more wealth redistribution and sinking hope.