Thanks for including this article. Looking at day-to-day polls can make a person
forget that the election is won state by state. A good follow up would be to
show where the parties are strong from an organizational standpoint, and where
they are weak, depending on a windfall of outside cash to save the day.
Very good analysis. It appears that if one state can be singled out as the
"keystone", it would be Florida with lots of retired folks and Hispanic
Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Those three are the most important. Something like
no president in 50 years has won without taking at least two of them. All three
have Republican governors that have angered their constituents (Kasich's
union bill that was overturned, McDonnells ultrasound bill, and Scott's...
they just don't like Scott but Romney's embrace of the Ryan budget as
well as Ryan possibly being VP means the Ryan budget becomes a key issue in the
Important to look at this type of information, as opposed to polls. This shows
the huge uphill battle Romney has ahead of him. Obama is searching for 29 more
votes, Romney needs 89. Romney better start with Florida, because right now,
that’s the only state Obama needs to swing to end this. That would be a
start. I think this map looked a lot different before the GOP primary,
pre-Conservative puppet Mitt. The Ryan budget will kill him in Florida. His
anti-immigration policy will hurt in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico. Mitt’s
“Santorum” social views will hurt him in Ohio and New Hampshire.
And the GOP’s attack on women will pretty much put the election away for
Obama. Independents who would have been more supportive of Mitt 6 months ago,
are scrambling back to Obama as the GOP has pulled Mitt in.
The AP would love for voters to forget about the 2010 midterm elections,
Obamacare, the jobless recovery, etc. Recently, Dean Singleton,
chairman of the Associated Press board, introduced President Obama at a speech
to news editors in Washington. But Singleton didn’t just tell the audience
the president was the next speaker—he offered lavish praise for Obama
while reading a statement that sounded like a 2012 reelection ad. Does the AP think the 2010 midterms were meaningless? Did we forget about the
ramming through of Obamacare? Obama has been a disaster. The
liberal media helped elect him by ignoring his inexperience and radical
associations, but now he has a record.
Insightful article, but I think it is missing one important issue. The very
thing the Republicans think is going to help them in this election is going to
sink them and that unemployment. This is because Romney has consistently opposed
the federal assistance to these hard hit states. People in Michigan are not
going to remember that George Romney was a popular governor fifty years ago,
they are going to remember that Mitt Romney opposed the bailout of the auto
industry three years ago. That's why he is behind in almost all of these
states with high unemployment.
Never predict an election, we should have learned that from 2000. And
certainly, it way too far out to even predict how these swing states will go.
If gasoline is $5 plus a gallon, not good for Obama. If the economy recovers,
good for Obama. Of course, there could be any number of political crises across
the globe. A skeleton could be found in someone's closet. Again, much too
early to predict and with our instant news cycle, one can't be comfortable
of anything until maybe Monday night before the election. Then again, that would
just be a maybe...
@Lovemesomecougars"Does the AP think the 2010 midterms were
meaningless?"They are meaningless when you're asking people
about 2012 and these polls are what they are saying. Fact is people are not
impressed with the republicans they voted in and the reason Obama leads in
almost every poll is because his favorable/unfavorables are around 47-48 while
Romneys' are around 40-50.
Does the AP think the 2010 midterms were meaningless? Did we forget about the
ramming through of Obamacare? 1. only 36% of registered voters voted
in 2010. It will be more like 70% in a general election.2. We
elected members of Congress to do the people's bidding. More congressmen
voted for the bill than voted against it. Back home, we think of that as
Democracy in Action. Its not ramming it home. That is a dramatic metaphor
with no action import. It was by more than majority vote. Sure you may
not like some provisions, but most people like most provisions. Only 1/3 dont
like it and want it gone. 1/3rd wanted the public option and dont think this
bill went far enough. 1/3 like what we got, pretty much.
Pres. Obama was elected in 2008 to reform health care(he rammed nothing
through---campaigned for the presidency for 18 months); no surprises with his
actions. It may be considered un-constitutional in June by the Court, in
which case Pres. Obama wins in a landslide in November.
Why is Utah not an important battle ground state? Because we don't matter!
We get ignored by the Democrats because they struggle to win here and the
Republicans ingore us because they know they have us in the bag!It's a huge frustration to be so predictable that we loose out on all