Go Jazz! I agree with Jerry, this intensity needs to be there every night. If we
are healthy for the playoffs... Watch out!
The Jazz proved me wrong in spades. They came out with intensity in the 1st
quarter and never let the Mavs have their way from 3 point land. Great win, I
was a doomsaying naysayer. I'm ashamed. (not really)This proves to me
though that as least some of the overall poor performance for the year ties into
lack of intensity. They came out last night with no intention of walking off
the court with a loss. May be Sloan needs to alter that starting line up for
What do you know, Korver starts, the Jazz have a great start to the game, and
Korver finishes with 20 and 9. Korver is a great asset to have on the team when
used properly, but unforunately I don't think he is most of the time. Hopefully
the Jazz can beat Sacramento tonight, and get over the terrible back-to-back
woes the have been having. I keep hoping there will be a turning point in the
season, and I am keeping my fingers crossed that this is finally it. Go Jazz!
Jerry's philosophy of no starter loses job because of injury has now got to go
this late in the season. What a difference with Kyle and 9 boards to boot. It's
time for Sloan to swallow his thoughts and do what't best for the team.
I am reporting the results of analysis I did on the first half. I ran a t-test
on the wins and losses. This is what the team did differently (sig at .05). FG 3.5 more in WsFGPer 3.5 % better3A 2.3 moreFTs 3.9
moreFTA 4.2 moreTotRB 3.8 morePFs 2.6 lessPoints 9
moreT-test only tell you if there is a statistical difference
between the Ws and the Ls. They do not tell you why. I will post more later on
why. T-tests compare averages. That can mask important anomalies or special
situations. The test for general tendencies.
I loved seeing Korver in the starting lineup. He was a monster on the boards
and he seems to have come out of his slump. Maybe he is a better starter than a
bench player. Would love to see him stick in that starting five.
I think the NBA needs to do away with back to back games. The product on the
floor the 2nd night is poor at best. Great win for the Jazz and
I'll take it but I'm worried about our engergy tonight as we will be the ones on
the second day of the back to back.
To see what "caused" the differences in the Wins and Losses I ran a stepwise
regression with points differential as the dependent variable. In other words I
used the stats from the box scores to predict/explain the margin of victory or
loss.The adjusted R sq was .794. About 80 % of the scoring
difference is explained by 6 of the box score stats. The equation is
Scoring Diff = .319 FGPer + .299 TRB +.477 OppTOV -.403 OppFGPer - .383 OppTRB
-.371 TOsI reported the standardized beta's. FG percentage,
rebounding and turnovers are key reasons the Jazz win or lose. The other
offensive variable are not real difference makers. On the defensive side the key
variables are opposition turnovers, opposition FG percentage, and opposition
rebounding. Rebounding is the place where the Jazz could most easily
improve their chances of winning. Both Fez and K2 are excellent rebounders.
Turnovers are another area that the Jazz could improve in without player
trades.Many things affect FGPer.
I ran t-tests on each player to see what they were doing different in the Ws and
Ls. Okur: In Wins: FG 2 more, FG% 13% better,3p about 1 more, 3p%
34% better in the Ws. As we will see later Okur's play is the primary difference
in whether the Jazz Win or Lose. If the Jazz had an adequate replacement for
Okur on nights when he is not playing well they would win a lot more. I think Okur is doing the best that he can to carry the team. However, he was
never designed for that role. His role was to compliment Boozers style of play.
The Jazz are asking Okur to do something that is beyond his capability. I blame
management for not getting an acceptable back center like Mutumbo.
Miles will be back in the lineup tonight,Korver back to the bench where he
Brewer's only significant difference is in DRBs. He gets about 1 more in Ws. His
play tends to be pretty consistent on average. However, his win scores compared
with last year are down. Williams gets about 3/4 of an ORB more in
Ws and about 1 and 1/2 extra TRBs in Ws.AK has 1 extra 3 point
attempt in Ls, almost 3 extra DRBs in Ws and 3 extra TRBs in Ws. AK rebounds
much better in wins. Korver has an extra 1+ FT and an extra 1 and
1/2 FT attempts in Ws. Knight's FG % is 7 % points better in Ws.Price gets about one extra FT in Ws.Fez has 2 extra fouls in
Losses. Note the sample size on Fez is less than 30. So this result may not be
accurate. The rest have no significant differences in the way they
play in Ws and Ls. They are consistent in the way there play across games
outcomes. Note: number of FTs may be controlled by the refs on the
road/home. AK, Brewer and Williams account for 5+ extra RBs in Ws.
Sloan needs to rethink his bench. Korver gives the Jazz a much needed 5th wheel
that Miles doesn't. Miles is more athletic than Korver, but no where near as
smart and experienced. The latter two always trump athleticism. Price vs. Knight
proves that.Too bad Price injured his thumb. That'll probably leave
us without four 1st/2nd string players for tonight's ill-fated back-to-back/road
game. With the way the Jazz have been playing defense of late, maybe there's
still a chance. The Kings are a shell of their former selves, so who knows.D-Will has taken it upon himself to be the team's Iverson. That might
get us a few wins, but will wear him down. But that's probably okay for now
because of the All-Star break coming up. GO D-WILL!
What kind of a t-test did you run? What data did you enter, and did you do it by
hand or with a stats software? Also, was there equal sample sizes? Just curious.
Are you freaking kidding me? Did you notice the energy Korver had out there? Did
you notice how well the team meshed WITHOUT CJ Miles? That guy is ridiculously
overpaid, and he ridiculously underperforms!
Hey anyone seen Miles? he`s not over in the corner sulking cause Korver had a
great game, is he ???
Having korver in the starting five gave us a true shooting guard and an
aggressive small 3, which miles does neither of and at any amt of $ is getting
overpaid. Korver defense and rebounding is better this year, give him some time
on the floor and he nails key 3's. Loved seeing it!
I ran a regression on each player to see what they did that would impact team
scoring differential (how much the Jazz won or lost by). Okur's
adjusted R sq was .47. His regression equation is SD = -.439 TOs
-.391 PF and .353 3P%. In plain language if Okur is turning the ball over, gets
in foul trouble and is missing his 3s the team is in trouble. I
suspect that the differences in stats stems from who is guarding Okur or how he
is being guarded. He has trouble with athletic centers. Williams
The only variable that emerged was ORBs. If Williams gets offensive rebounds
that increases the winning margin. For AK it was DRBs, SAP it was assists and
Knight it was FT%. There were no sig. predictors for the other players. These are the key behaviors by each player that affected the winning
margin in the games that they played (of the first 49 played). Keep
in mind that the sample sizes are small.
Good News, are you serious? Miles is an inconsistent one-trick pony. I have
been wishing Korver would start in Miles' place all year and it's no coincidence
what happened last night. Korver needs to get into the flow of the game and
it's much easier as a starter. Coming off the bench, especially with our
depleted second unit, he is a focal point of their defense. He has to fly off a
screen and shoot in the blink of an eye to get his shot off. With the starters,
the floor opens up and he gets better spacing/more time to get set and get a
good shot off.
WL Team All the stats you are doing have already been done on ESPN -
Hollinger and 82gamesI hope you are not spending too much time
I ran the standard independent sample t-tests in SPSS PC using Ws and Ls (dummy
code) from the first 49 games. I imported the data from the game logs at 82games
into excel and then into SPSS. I had to recode some variables to numeric (home
or away). I had to compute score difference. The sample sizes differed by the
number of games each player played. All reported had more than 30 observations
(except Fez, who I ran just to see what I would get).The analysis
could have been run with Tukey t-tests but I doubt if the results will change.
Given the sample sizes this approach will only find fairly strong effects.
I did not do any analysis on Boozer as he has been out all year. There was not
enough data. I would like to run last year's data to see the differences but it
takes a lot of time to create the data set.
If you take the DRB divided by the ORB, multiply it by the product of 3's missed
and the # of foul trys.Then take the total # of minutes played by the
reserves divided by the number of coached on the bench. Add 100 and take the
square root of that and that will always give you the %tage of games won over an
82 game season.Some of you guys need to get either a job or a life!
What I see is a new strategy. I am not sure if it is William's or Sloan's.DWill shot outside in Portland and it did not work since the Bigs did
not rebound. However, last night by circumstance both he and Korver were
starting. Both of them shot a lot of 3s. That opened up the interior and helped
the Bigs a lot. DWill hitting from the outside helped Korver a lot. He was open
more.Korver and DWill need to start together. Thier outside shooting
changes the inside game. The Jazz are a much better team when they use outside
shooting to open up the inside. They are more like SA then. CJ will
play better on the second team. His scoring ability is needed there (AK gone)
and his defense will not be as difficult.The Jazz are a very
dangerous team if they have their regular inside game with the option of an
outside game.If the Jazz win tonight we will know that they are
getting it together. Okur is the key. If he plays well the Jazz win. However,
DWill may be able to carry the team if it rebounds well.
Awesome game! Keep korver in the starting line up. Let cj rot on the bench
where he belongs. he is awful! over at 82games dot com it says that when cj is
on the floor the jazz are outscored by about a point, but when he leaves the
game we outscore our opponents by over 5 points! What a waste!
Way to go Jazz!!!They looked unbeatable in the latest win! Could that have
anything to do with the starting five! Very impressive energy! Good to see
Korver playing a role he is more suited for! He brought that extra spark to the
floor! Korver has stepped it up a notch lately! Those 3's are a beautiful
sight! Has anyone noticed those rebounds? Hope his sharp shooting
continues.....the games are more fun to watch when Korver gets a chance to shoot
more! He's the type of team player the Jazz need right now! He knows how to
pass that ball to the open man! We need his shooting !!Williams was awesome
!How does he play through all those injuries....what a tough guy! The
Jazz pulled through....if they can continue that kind of energy and team play
until Boozer returns we have it made!!! Keep Korver in the starting lineup he
has earned it!!!
Hey, "team regression", that analysis explains the won-loss of every team in the
NBA, in fact, I knew all of that in high school. You shoot better than the other
team, you outrebounnd them, you have fewer turnovers, etc--you win the game.Korver is far more valuable to this team than Miles, Miles is a soft,
unenergetic, overpaid kid; trade him and Collins and Fesenko, for a guy in the
middle who can play, rebound, play defense and score.
Of course the stats for the games the Jazz win are better then for the games the
Jazz lost, that's why they won. Your stats are nice, but are to simple to
explain what the Jazz can do to actually win more games. It's one thing to say
'if you turn the ball over less you win more games', and another to actually go
out there and play. Just because we win more games when we rebound more doesn't
mean that putting in two inexperienced centers will improve our chances of
winning. I like your attempt, but your stats just don't tell us much
beyond the obvious.
To some guys, stats ARE their life! They get paid lots of cash to come up with
formulas to figure stuff like that out. I don't know that I'd take ol' W&L to a
Korver needs to start.
D-Will is back!!I'm sure glad he's our man, glad we got him. Can't wait to see
him go up against Chris Paul next time.Korver was great!! He's
really struggled for the whole season. Glad to see that he can play like he did
last night. I was really impressed with his rebounding, and defense. Two things
Miles will have to get serious about to keep his starting job. I hope they both
play well consistantly from here on throughout the rest of the season. Go
Korver!! Go Miles!! Go Jazz!!
data that every NBA team has. They look at every play, frame by frame, to see
who (all 5) is not in the right place doing the right thing. I m
ight be able to add the plus minus data but that is a very crude approximation
of contribution. I would say the analysis is quite helpful. It
mostly comes back down to fundamentals. Beside it also points out that certain
players (not all) are not consistent in the way they have played so far in the
wins and losses. The box score stats are caused by a lot of deeper
complex causes. Without better metrics (measures) those can not be dug out. The
data can't tell you information that it does not have or that it did not record
or capture. Get me better data and if I take the time I can get you
a better detailed understanding of why.
I ran a test of the final score and it came up that the Jazz whupped 'em.
As a transplanted Jazz fan, I had to pay big bucks to get tickets to the Kings
game tonight because they're retiring Chris Webber's #4. I hope the boys got
some good rest, because my daughter is counting on a big Jazz win tonight in
Arco to put a damper on the party.
One of the key differences in scoring margin is Okur's 3 point shooting. Without
Boozer's moves Okur's 3 point shooting is more erratic. Korver was
brought in to open up the inside game. However, without Boozer he can't
effectively open things up. His win score is down. DWill has the
ability to add 3 point shooting. That helps both Korver and Okur. It also opens
up the inside. Last night's game may be an outlier. Dallas normally
rebounds pretty well. Last night they did not (back to back). Dallas is one of
the better 3 point defenders. Kidd may not be one of them. We will
see if the outside to open the inside works in future games. It did not work in
Portland (no rebounding). I think the Jazz over utilize the inside
game and that cause turnovers. In some cases it also causes them to get out
rebounded (key loss variables). Their lack of a consistent effective outside
game is a major weakness. Maybe DWill can fix that. Having both Korver and DWill
plus Okur can really open up the inside. DWIll, Korver, AK/SAP, Okur and Booz
Hey,great new nickname for our wonderboy,Miles.....can`t you lose your starting
job due to lack of effort or production ???? hummmmmmmm
....to the entire crowd there last night for giving Dirk "Crybaby" Nowitzki the
respect he deserved. Which is absolutely none! I loved it!! I wished I could
have been there but it was a riot to watch him look dumbfounded the whole night
and to hear the "boo's" of the crowd everytime he got the ball. Made my night
:) The Jazz may have totally rocked last night - but so did the
crowd! Thats one thing that definetly helps the Jazz!Loved the
line-up - Loved the Game - LOVE THE JAZZ -Go get 'em tonight too!By
the way - the Lakers/Celtics game was good too - Sure wish Celtics would have
won. I think less of Kobe than I do of Dirk - and it's hard to get lower than
Great win the Jazz have to win tonight to make it stick though,,, lets hope
DWill brings the same intensity and CJ develops a headache. Korver, Okur
, Harpring, even Brewer blue collar lunch pail players, they show up to
work. I subtracted the losing score from the winnig score and came up
with the difference CJ makes to this team.....
Such CJ bashers today. Guess what? I think I can say with pretty good
confidence that he is WAY better than any of you are. That's why your sitting
here talking about him while he is out there making the bucks I guess. Funny
how it has moved from Booze to him. Are you just never satisfied???
You think CJ is way better than anyone posting here.... not really the issue is
it? Are people here competing for playing time with the Jazz? My 12 year old
daughter is probably way better than most who post here, but what does that have
to do with anything?? I don't think most WANT to bash CJ... I think most LIKE
him... agree he is athletic and has a lot of that 'potential' stuff. The
problem seems to be almost Hart-like, where fans are
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO flustered, wondering if Sloan is actually seeing
the same games as everyone else. There is a difference between sticking with
CJ, hoping his 'potential' will turn into some GAME, giving him a bit of extra
time....... and what Sloan seems to want to do, continue to play him LONG after
he's proven to be a liability on a Jazz team that doesn't have the luxury of
waiting all year to see if CJ can mature, and play to his potential.
The Jazz shot the lights out last night. They used up their good shooting.The got totally "jobbed" by the NBA schedulers!! You get a late TNT game
AND then you still have to travel to a back to back game the next night? Are
you kidding? Double Whammy.The Jazz probably got to bed at 4 AM if
they were lucky.Add that to their lack of mental toughness and the
psychology of their road issues and combine that with the fact that Okur can't
throw it in the ocean on the road. Compounded by the possibility that CJ may be
back which means a drop off in production in the starting lineup again.Lets be fair though. Korver has been in a HORRIFIC shooting slump. There is
a reason there are averages and most players generally stick to them. Korver
finally shot out of his slump and made a bunch of shots to negate the 25% clip
he has been hitting at lately.One game does not a starter make. He
might be worth a try though. Again, CJ has been give yet another opportunity
and has been marginal at best and poor most of the time.
he gets paid big money so he is open to criticism. That is the way it goes. If
he doesn't want people bashing on him, then he should show a little effort once
in a while and earn his check.
RE:WowIts not that CJ cannot play but why not try Korver at the spot
for a while and see what happens. Maybe CJ will bring something to the second
unit that is missing also. But we will never know unless Sloan is willing to mix
it up. CJ is still a good player he still has a lot of growing up to do yet. He
would probably get more court time in the second unit because he could spell
Brewer and Korver. Could be a win win situation for all.
@ Stats ManGood analysis. It is very similar to the analysis that
82games runs but one thing you found proves something that I have thought and
mentioned for a while but never had any proof of...With Boozer out
Memo, and the way he plays, is one of the biggest factors in the Jazz
success.More than anyone else, when Memo is on the Jazz look great,
and when he is off the Jazz struggle. And not just on with his shot, but also
clearing the boards.Between all the players missing games, the
travel, the less than 24 hours between games, and the fact that Willimas and
Millsaps injuries have to be sore today this game is going to be tough to
win.C'mon Jazz, show me something tonight!GO JAZZ!
All you fancy computers are coming to the wrong conclusions on why the jazz win
or lose. I put the numbers from every game since the Karl Malone Stockton era
and I found that in every jazz loss the opposing team scored more points than
they dis and in every win the jazz outscored their opponents by at least one
Malone represented last night, kenny tried to diminish the mailmans
accomplishments, as would be expected, but in the end malone had his word and
got to speak about what the jazz are all about. both of malone's teams won, and
both of those wins would have to have been considered long shots.It's just
refreshing to hear what malone had to say, broadcasted to a national audience,
so that people can know what's going on in utah.As you would expect,
malone got the job done, covering the essential and necessities for what would
have to have been considered a succesfull representing.
EJ was like putting a plug in to try to get Stockton into the studio, let's keep
our fingers crossed.Maybe someday.
you are a novice
Thanks that was the first conclusion that jumped out. It really mostly depends
on Memo with Booz out. It may be possible for DWill to carry the game from the
outside but the Jazz are not an outside team for the most part. Brewer is a
slasher by design. Korver really helped last year as he opened things up. With
Booz gone there has to be more than Korver to open things up or there has to be
a back up who can come in when Memo is not going well. Both an
outside shooter and a good big back up would really insure that this team can
compete with SA and LA. That is why I have pushed so hard to try to get one or
two more players. Almond and Collins just can't perform at the level that is
needed to put this team over the top. That is why I want Koufos and Fez
developed fast.The opportunity will be gone with this playoff
season. This team is going to blow up due to cap problems. Memo and Booz are a
team. If one goes the other is less effective.
GET A LIFE!The only numbers you need to chew on & spit back are the
score!D-Will had a good game, Dallas looked like St. Theresa's school of
the blind & tired. We couldn't beat the Fakers or the Smeltdics lollygagging
like we did last night. Did you run the numbers on how poorly the B-team (bench
warmers) performed when they came on? If not for Mo (nutz) almond hitting some
shots, they looked worse then Dallas!Korver play defense? Crack kills,
people!Brewer hit the outside J? Meth is for dummies!Okur move his
feet on Defense? Lay off the Chronic!Millsap block a shot on D?
After endless hours of statistical evaluation, I have concluded that for every
second that Jerry Sloan stands up when coaching, the Jazz have a 0.0078% greater
chance of winning games. According to my calculations, this figure increases
dramatically when Phil Johnson stands up at the same time that Jerry Sloan
stands up. For every second that these two men are on their feet, together, the
Jazz have a 0.125% chance of winning which increases exponentially. Therefore,
we can conclude that if both men are standing at the same time for 4+ minutes,
the Jazz have a higher probability of victory. I haven't run any T
reports yet on how many times players on the bench decline hand-extension cup
offers from the water boys, but keep an eye out for that later.
I would hope that Diaper boy is better than all of us,I`m a 56 year old dude
with a cup of coffee in one hand and a ice cold Miller in the other!!!! Go
Houdini!!!! go Comma Man!!!! PS...there high school kids that are better than
@ TopperHa Ha just made my day.
the only real justification i can see for starting korver over miles is how
absolutely putrid korver has been for most of the year "coming off the
bench"......to be fair, he's shot the ball ok inside the 3 line, but from beyond
the arc, as they say in ny, fa get aboutit......maybe miles can thrive once
again coming off the bench if he at least gets the same amount of minutes he did
as a starter..i like korver, but c'mon....
just made the Ball don't Lie Highlight on Yahoo. DWill is all over the internet
with his play that put Terry on the floor. Some respect for DWill.
He seems to be playing rather well since they left him off of the all star
So let me clear up all this statistical nonsense with one axiom and its
corollary.1. If you score more points than your opponent, you
win.2. If you hold your opponents to less points than you score, you
Ya'll are just jealous of his statistical prowess.He should be
getting college credit for that body of work.Take the analysis to
the next level with a probablistic outcome predictor and throw in 100 pages of
words explaining the results and you have a masters thesis in Mathmatics.
LIke have said before,When get your scoring from your shooting
guard, or small forward,You are a bettet team.It's a
fact you must have star players ans sytem to take adavantage of their skills at
th 2-guard and small forward positions,to win championships.unfortunately you just can't count on korver, and he too one
demensional, and not good defenderand sloan will never change his
system,and they will never prize defense from the PF more than
scoring,and the jazz will never win a championship.The
are five players out there, Sloan, not just a point and PF.
what matters is the jazz are 28-22 and hope to remain in a playoff spot after
tonight, there are more statistics here than when ross porter did dodger games.
maybe someone knows the record of the jazz when there was a quarter moon
compared to full-2 in a roW!!!