Only disagree with one thing in the article, that in "reality is the Jazz
aren't as good as they were 3 days ago." And "disagree" isn't
exactly the right word. What I say is the Jazz are "better off" than
they were 3 days ago. The truth is they had a cancer in their locker room and as
soon as the season ended, next season would have been a Carmelo Anthony like
circus overshadowing everything else. And like Cleveland with Lebron James,
they stood to get little in return. D-Will's already started the
drama in NJ, stating he's "not sure" he'll stay. So looking at what
the Jazz got for maybe 1 1/4 seasons of Derron (or less if a prolonged walk
out), and what a nucleus it could become, in the long run, they are a better
long-term prospect as a franchise than 3 days ago. By far.
Haaaaa haaaa the Spazz are a no name now, I will always go with my Lakers.. At
least they know how to win, If they should lose, let's go Spurs.. At least they
know how to win!!!
The myth is that you need a super star. It is not true. I know many
of you bristle when I bring up WP48 scores. For individual players they can be
miss leading as they do not capture everything. But on the team
level (collectively) they is an amazingly high correlation between the total
WP48 scores (added together) of the players who get the most minutes and the
winning percentage. As a playoff predictor the WP48 scores are
nearly fool proof. If there is a big difference between the teams (most minutes
played by 8 players) collective WP48 scores you know with a high degree of
probability who is going to win the playoff series. If Greg/KOC
wants to win a Championship the formula is very simple. Max the WP48 score of
the 8 players who play the most. That will give you consistent
playoff victories. You do not need big names you need a high team
WP48. Evans leads .34 in WP48, DWill .22 (down from last year),
followed by AK .19 and Millsap .16 (also down), AJ .12 and Watson .09. CJ, Bell
and Hayward are not helping much. The rest are negative.
Why is this team so bad. It is very simple. DWill and Millsap are down big in
WP48. Jefferson is down from his average. Watson is an improvement. The wing play is bad with the exception of AK who is playing slightly above
normal. WP48 mainly captures overall offensive efficiency and some
defense. The Jazz as a team are INEFFICIENT. The system is busted.
It does not work or it is not being implemented well enough. Lately
AJ has played better. Corbin tweaked the system. He has to tweak it some more to
improve the wing play a lot. This team was poorly designed based on
bad theory. Corbin is going to have to change the offense to fit the strengths
of the players he has. He has got to find some way to get them to
play D. They are bad at it. It is not just one player it is the
system, the collective team. The Jazz consistency was based on
EFFICIENCY and average Defense. Fix the efficiency and get more
talent. IT is not just the wings. The 2 PFs are under performing
badly (based on the whole year). Packed paint = inefficiency. Get
@Johnson I would not laugh to hard. There are several teams in the West who
are a lot better than last year and they do not fear the fakers one bit. OKC and
POR could beat you easily with the right game plan. SA and DAL have a great
What if Derrick Favors becomes the face of the franchise? That's what makes this
deal so potentially great. What if Devin Harris becomes the face of
the franchise? When he was in Dallas, he was pretty stellar. I believe
(not sure) he was part of that Dallas team with Avery Johnson that went ~61-21.
Dallas wanted him really bad this year too. If he works with Hornaceck on his
shot, he could become great.He's the same size as Williams, but lighter.
What he gives up in strength, he makes up with athleticism. He can sure dunk
better than Williams and is faster.The downside is that neither of
these player perform to their caliber, but you still have the future draft picks
if that doesn't happen.
That's kinda mean about Latvia, a Baltic country that became independent from
Russia. I'm sure those living in Riga believe themselves to be at the center of
the world, just like those who live in Salt Lake City....
DWill down big in WP48. WP48 mainly captures overall offensive
efficiency and some defense. The Jazz as a team are INEFFICIENT. The
system is busted. It does not work or it is not being implemented well
enough.--------Hence, trading D-Will.
Remind me again who the "name" player was on the Jazz when Dantley was
traded and Stockton and Malone were relative infants? How'd that work out?
"I wouldn't be doing my job if I said that was the end of the moves,"
My word man, put down the phone already! Williams, Boozer, Kover,
Brewer, Matthews that's a pretty good team right there. Much better than we
currently have. The way I see it is that our biggetst problem was
Kirilenko's crippling contract. If it weren't for that we could have kept those
guys. And someone answer me a question, why didn't the Jazz offer
Matthews a contract extension BEFORE Portland offerend him the huge contract
that the Jazz could not match? I actaully didn't go in on season
tickets to watch KOC wheel and deal. I'd really rather haved watched good
I think the Jazz are about ready to drop a proven playoff system and go with
Bugoff's WP4824 system.I wonder if Phil Jackson or Greg Popovich
know the Jazz have this magical formula for winning that does not need a coach
or a system, just numbers.
My question is: Is the Jazz have no star power, how are they going to attract
other stars to Utah? In Dwill they had someone who could recruit other players.
Now who is going to want to come to Utah to play?The
Jazz may have good pieces but will they be able to add to them?And
why on earth do they need three power forwards when they have no legit 2?
ok, we should get a nice player at five or six this summer in the draft. i
wonder also if we can bring over tomac from spain as he is a good player.thanks.
@Johnson 72. Your comment comments are old. How is your personal life working
out? Did your parents offend you in some way? Does being negative about our
local team make you feel good? What do you do day to day that makes you feel
positive? Oh well!
Bugoff: You make some good points, the numbers don't lie. Getting some
productive wings is something I think they see but don't want to act on. I think
they see CJ and Hayward as young talents that will develop.CJ has had
almost 6 yrs and is still struggling, I feel Hayward will develop and be very
good but we still need proven shooters on the wing.Miles: You keep
saying we don't have a legit 2 but that is where CJ is best suited to play.
Actually both CJ and Hayward are best suited to play the 2, we need to get
a(or2)long athletic 3, that can shoot. This draft could be a mess, with
the possible lock out looming, some of the players we could get may decide not
to enter the draft because of the lock out question.
Trading DWill actually made the system worse in the short run. However, you can
make a case for trading DWill as a long run strategic move. I for
one think Greg made the right move. A difficult bold move but the right one for
the franchise in the long run. The Jazz could not fix the system without draft
picks and replacing wings with better players. It is best to get all of the
controversy over with and rebuild now and in the lock out year. They
could trade AK but he was not nearly as good as trade bait. They could trade
Millsap but he is a good contract. It is easier to replace a PG (even a star who
can shoot) than to replace a good big.
Harris has game! You need to give him his chance. Wait n see... He will shine
and by next year at this time you won't even remember Deron...Go JAZZ!
@CJ Miles. I understand your concern about attracting free agents
here because we dont have a "star." and its a valid concern. But the
truth is, Deron himself admitted he has been "recruiting the heck out of
people" and nobody still wanted to come. For smaller market
teams we have to count on smart draft picks, good trades and the new CBA. I
think the NBA realizes they need to make changes that will be more like the way
the NFL does business if they want to have more than 5 teams that are viable.
We do have shots to make this happen. The Thunder have been smart
about picks and trades and they are contenders now. So we need to do the same
things.In summary, when the season started I was optimistic, then in
January that all took a 180, then when they traded Deron, I am back to
optimistic. We have some sweet picks ahead and I am happy about the two players
we got. Big man with lots of upside and a former allstar PG who went what 5th in
the draft the year before Deron. WOOT
Last year the top 9 (minutes played) players had a collective WP48 of .123.So far this year (including good start) it is .68 (includes DWill and not
Harris) That means that the team as a whole is really bad. That
could be because of individual or collective play but most likely it is
collective play.In 2010, Booz .29, Dwill .24, AK .22, Mill .14,
Korver .13, Brewer .12, Mathews .07, Okur .05, and CJ -.03 = .123In
2011, DWill .22, AK .19, Mill .16, AJ .12, Watson .09, CJ .04, Bell .00 Hayward
.00 and Price -.14 = .68Millsap replaced Boozer, AJ replaced Okur.
Nobody replaced Millsap. DWill and AK are down a little. Watson helped, CJ
improved. Korver, Brewer, and Mathews were replaced with Bell, Hayward, and
Price. Harris over his years with NJ is .12 (this year), .07 and
.15. He is replacing DWill at .22. Favors a rookie is at .08.If
Favors replaces Price in minutes, DWill for Harris/Favors is a wash. There are 2 major glaring problems. Nobody replaced Millsap (maybe Favors?)
and the wings are bad. This is one camera angle. Big problem in the
wings. Can't open the inside.
@ CJ Miles: waiting for you to proclaim C. J. the new "face of the
franchise" . . . .
I believe Deron wants a championship bad enough that he would have left,
believing that the Jazz wouldn't spend enough to surround him with the talent
required to compete with the likes of Miami, New York, Boston, or Chicago. In
that context, I'm guardedly excited about moving forward.I'm excited
about the 'potential' of Derrick Favors. I'm all for having Karl Malone as an
assistant over strength and conditioning as well as coaching the low post
players. Millsap, Jefferson, and Favors could all take many lessons from
Karl.I'm totally fine with Harris as a PG. If my memory serves me
correctly, Jazz fandome was happy when Dallas sent him to NJ for Jason Kidd.
Devin, if he's coachable, will be a fine PG.I love Raja Bell ...
when he was here last time or in Phoenix. If he can find the old Raja, I'm good
at SG. If not, I pine for Matthews. I'm neutral on Korver. Yes, he could
shoot, but his defense was 2nd class. Matthews is a much better choice (if
there is a choice in the future).
When the Seattle Sonics moved to Oklahoma City, they didn't have a bonified
star, just a bunch of players with potential. Now, Durrant and Westbrook have
emerged, and the team is a real contender. The Jazz are in the same exact
position right now. Let's be a little patient. Of course, it's unnerving to
lose your franchise player. But another one could easily emerge. The Jazz have
the talent now to be in the playoff hunt. They just need to get on the same
page and play like they want it.
Looked at remaining schedules regarding Jazz' chances of making the playoffs.
San Antonio, Dallas, Lakers, Thunder, New Orleans probably have the top 5 seeds
wrapped up. Portland, Memphis, and Denver look to battle it out for the last
three playoff spots---and with their schedules should only lose 10 or12 games
thereby finishing with record of around 45-37. That really puts pressure on the
Jazz to have a chance to make the playoffs, because the Jazz have so many tough
games remaining that they might be doing well to go 12-12 and thereby finish
43-39. If they got hot and finished 16-8 then they would make the playoffs, but
that would require winning lots of road games: tonight at Indiana, at Detroit,
at New York, at Houston, and at Memphis. It would take some quick jelling as a
team to get hot; more likely they will just struggle to finish 41-41, and a
final record worse than 45-37 will not likely make the playoffs. It would seem
like there is just too much turmoil to suddenly get hot down the stretch.
Until we get rid of miles,who has zero work ethic along with his lack of effort
and commitment, which WILL rub off on all our players .He is lazy,over-rated and
at 3.7 million per year ,WAY overpaid,This team will never content with miles on
Houdini: Your not going to let up on CJ are you. CJ is inconsistent but he is
not the whole problem, and he isn't that bad. I smile everytime I read your
posts because they will almost always slam CJ. We have alot of young
players now that need to develop and it is probably going to be a long difficult
period of time for these young guys to develop and mature. A few of them will
need to mature and become leaders which at this point they are not. I hope they
step up sooner instead of later but like Holt56 said, we need to be patient and
hope for the best.
I'm giving all my DWill Jerseys/t-shirts to charity then I'm going to by one
with the name "POTENTIAL" on the back because that's basically all you
have to really hang your hat on with this team for the coming future. The question I, and many like me have to ask is are we willing to pay the
money to go to Jazz games to watch a 30-35 win team with some future unknown
date potential?I'd say at least 3 yrs MINIMUM before we're a real
good team again.
I strongly disagree with Rock's statement that the Jazz are not better after the
trade. One of Utah's major weaknesses has been D-Will's propensity to make
turnovers, especially in critical situations. He also was a failure as a
leader. The team lacked chemistry and often settled for outside jumpers instead
of working for easy shots. Since when has a second string outplayed a first
string in the NBA, not just once but multiple times? And was D-Will a great
defender? Hardly. Basketball is a team sport. Very, very few players can
"take over" a game consistently -- maybe 10 players in the history of
the NBA. D-Will is not in that group. The Jazz have another major weakness:
It lacks skilled big men, which is true of probably two-thirds of the teams in
the league. This trade has already brought a lottery big man, No. 3 in the
draft, AND it might bring another lottery big man this year and another the
following year. The Jazz were not going to get better very fast under D-Will.
Now the team has a chance. I'm excited to watch what happens next.
@JazzManSure why not continue the support. They need us now as much
as when they are winning. We can't be fairweather fans. Look at Cleveland. They
still sell out their arena.Why not enjoy watching these guys mesh
and the young guys develop. Some of my favorite moments from this year have been
watching Jeremy Evans play more and dunk and also shoot some sweet jump shots
and also, I have enjoyed seeing those good games Hayward has had. Why not have fun with them during this time. I think we have been spoiled with
making the playoffs every year, we haven't had to experience any rebuilding.And to be honest, after January and Feb this year, did you think we were
going for a championship this year even with Deron? I didn't. Now we have pieces
to watch grow and it will be lots more fun to follow than to hear Deron for the
next year "I don't know, I'll see how next season goes" and
"Depends on the CBA" "Depends on the moves we make"EMphatic no
@netmasterI agree with you.Yeah, big men like Shaq,
Gasol, Howard, Duncan just don't come along very often and the teams that land
them are VERY lucky.I still like Jefferson and Millsap, but the
addition of Favors excites me. He can learn some things from those guys. Millsap
can teach him how to improve his offense the way he did by adding his jumper.
I've heard Favors is a hard worker like Millsap, lets hope so.
Actually Millsap was kind of replaced by a committee of AK, Elson and Fes. But
moving AK to PF caused a weak wing to replace AK. Elson is a -.07,
Okur is a -.08 and Fes is -.15 Price is a -.14 The lack of a quality bench is
killing the Jazz but less of a problem than weak wings who get more minutes. If Favors gets most of the back up minutes at PF/C and he continues to
improve that is very positive for the Jazz. It then is a matter of getting at
least one very good wing, improving the bench (cheap) and improving the D (more
difficult). The Jazz can be fixed but the overall team wp48 has to
be as high as possible. The Jazz will be Cleveland if they ignor that principle.
Firing Corbin will not change anything. If you do not have the right combination
of players the Coach is pretty much not relavent.
cj needs more shots!If Stern would make the teams play more games
(92 or 102 instead of 82), cj would get more minutes, and more shots, he has
only been in the NBA for six years. He just doesn't get enough shots. If a new
commissioner was in place I know cj would be an All-Star!I don't
think it is fair that Wes Matthews should flourish as a legit NBA player with
only 1 year in the NBA. cj is far superior to him in all areas...he just needs
more shots.Sloan was not giving him enough shots. Now Cobin is not
giving him enough shots. When Corbin is gone...then cj will get more shots and
everyone will finally know how wonderful cj really is!
@Doug 10 I do not have time to publish the SA or LA WP48 scores right now but I
can tell you by memory that LA has been over 150 for the last 3 years or so. I
am sure SA is very high also. If you compute BOS, MIA CHI and ORL you will find
the same thing.If you are an elite team you have a high WP48 score
in the top 8-9 players. A year ago I ran them for the last couple of
years playoffs and they predicted the winner in almost every playoff series.
Injuries and some teams get hot late and that may change the outcome
of a series but you can handicap for those anomalies.
On Jan 17th the Jazz fell off a clift. I don't think the talent changed and the
coaching certainly didn't change until just 4 games ago. For the severe drop
off to occur something bad had to have happened. I disagree with most of this
article. Since Jan 17 we are 3-14 with DWill and 0-1 without him. We'll
see.For the past 3 yrs at the beginning of the season I have
predicted the Jazz record. I predict pessimistically so I could be pleasantly
surprised. This year's perdiction was: 36-46. Up until Jan 17 I was optimistic
they would do much better. After their lastest run, I figured if they win 4
more games we'll be lucky. With the changes, we still may not win many games
but it at least we can't be much worst than where we were headed.
@JassRuleI agree with your comments. After all the great years with
John and Karl, I thought the year without them when everyone expected the Jazz
to fall off the map was one of the most fun to watch the Jazz. It changed my
mind about Sloan because he took what he had and made the Jazz a fun team to
watch. That is when he HAD to use AK correctly and we know the rest of the
@ Doug 10 againBesides I am not saying the Jazz should abandon the
Sloan system.I am saying that IF the Jazz had enough of the right
players in the right positions the WP48s would reflect it. They would be
challenging Dallas and LA. And I am also pointing out that the Jazz
system is not being implemented well enough or the WP48s would be much higher.
They were much higher the first 2 months. Since then the 3 point
shooting has tanked and the system has bogged because smart defensive teams
figured out how to exploit the weaknesses in the Jazz and defeat the system. Is the system bad? There are about 5 variations of the system. Further,
the Jazz do not have enough of the right players for the roles and the current
players are not implementing well enough. If that keep up you will
get a different system that may not be better. WP48 is about getting
the right players with the right capabilities for the right roles and then
getting them to execute well within the system. You are not getting
a system change UNLESS you continue with a low collective WP48.
WP48 relfects shooting efficiency, rebounding, TOs and defense. The Jazz are
weak in all of those aspects. They lack the right characteristics in
enough of the right players. The system is also not being executed well enough.
As I said before this team was poorly designed on both Sloan biases
and a lack of WP48. However, the Sloan system is a pretty good one
IF you have the right players to execute it and they actually do execute it. WP48 is an indicator of applied talent that wins basketball games (at
the collective level). It is not an inditement of the Sloan system.
It is an inditement of the player selection and implementation of the system.
The Sloan system has produced high WP48 scores in the past. This
year is an anomalie. The system has been abused this year by bad player
selection and a bias against outside shooting capability.
I totally understand why the Jazz did what they did, and I agree it's what had
to be done, at this point. One of the big reasons Deron would have
left is because this franchise has been unable to resign anyone of value, i.e,
Korver, Matthews, Boozer, Brewer, I suppose mainly because of the 17 million on
the books for Kirilenko. By the way, who was the genius GM that made that
contract? I like AK and think he has great skills, when he's healthy, but not 17
mil worth of skills. So, yeah I can get behind watching the young
guys develop, Favors, Evans, Hayward, ..maybe Fesenko, frankly I've seen enough
of CJ's game to not expect much there. But that's about it. There's
plenty of bad basketball to go around with this group. When journeyman backups
are playing key roles on your team you're in trouble. I've loved watching big Al
play and improve, and Milsap. But it could be a long wait for the
W's to start coming with consistency again. And let's face it W's are much more
fun to watch
In the past several of the positive Sloan biases automatically produced high
WP48 scores. However, this year his bias against shooting wings and
the Front Office not replacing Boozer/Okur adequately bit the Jazz hard. It is fixable. Jerry was not a stat geek. But MOST of his
biases mirror WP48. His thing was efficiency. Shooting efficiency and rebounding
are two of the most important aspects of WP48. TOs and defense are most of the
rest of the important elements. That captures many of Sloan's
positive biases. He tended to max WP48 without ever looking at it. Sloan was a very good coach with a few quirks but he was very good. He mostly did the right things when building a team.
The Jazz have been in a tough spot or two before. I'd hardly call them "no
name." They're the Jazz. That's a name, and one of the best.
I can't believe KOC could not find a shooter. This team has no chance of making
the playoffs with the pathetic outside shooting they have. KOC has forgotten how
the team turned around after acquiring Korver just because they have to extend
their defense. They now can look at CJ's 26% as the Jazz main outside threat and
laugh their heads off. I don't know how you can shoot 36% from the field and
still get the playing time he does, especially considering his defensive
Ya know, I hated when the Dnews limited things to 2 posts and I was unaware they
had changed that policy, but if I gotta read much more about WP48 I'm gonna ask
that it be reinstated.Deron was a #3 pick and as a rookie did not
play much. Favors is a #3 and could become the face of the franchise. The Jazz
will have 2 lottery picks this year and could combine them to move up to get a
"face of the franchise". I wish Dwill would have loved it
here and bought into the system, but based on his attitude, this had to be done
and this was the best time to do it. I'll stick with the Jazz through this.
The only thing that will turn me on the Jazz is if they use one of those first
rounders on an undersized, pale, "shoot first" guard presently playing
college ball in Provo.
Shaybo: Get your stats right before you post. CJ is a better three point
shooter than Wade, Kobe, Anthony and Westbrook. So do teams laugh their heads
off at them? ha ha haBy your reasoning, Kobe should not be playing
at all. Nice post. Does Richfield have TV yet?
I am at work reading this during my breaks and I just laughed out loud so hard
at what Geo guy said about WP48.Thanks for the laugh. Haha, Im still
laughing as I write this.Anyway, ya, they will have 3 lottery picks
by summer in Favors, Hayward, and the 2011 lottery pick (no way Deron
"takes them to the playoffs"). It will be fun to follow. I
am hoping to get tickets to a game soon to see the new guys and watch the team
mesh and develop.
Scratch that, 4 lottery picks, Devin Harris went 5th the year before Deron
WIlliams. I think we will be surprised by him. Look at his 2008-2009 highlights
I like what KOC has done, I think it is what was necessary to have the team move
forward. If he hadn't done it the team would have moved backward, as DWill would
have left and we'd have not got nearly as much for him or got nothing for him.
We have to be patient and not fair weather fans, hope for the best and
just enjoy that we have an NBA team in Utah.
all that wpa48 stuff is a bit much,I don`t read it a waste of time
Gotta have Millsap in that poll, come on... I dont know about everyone else but
he is literally the only Jazz player I feel connected to now. Obviously thats a
one-way connection, but who else would it be as the new "face of the
Face it. The Jazz are a more often a better team when they don't have superstars
on the team. When Boozer was injured last season, the Jazz played much better
with Paul Millsap. This year without DWill, the Jazz won 2-4 and the 2 losses
were close games. Playoffs here we come.
Laugh all you want at the WP48 stats, but the fact is Bugoff is right. And,
even without his WP48 stuff, he's the most balanced analyst on this board.
Utah will move on alright... just like Cleveland in the East after LaBron left
for sunny South Beach ... to the bottom of the division. The Jazz will fight
hard and lose close but lose they will and often. Somehow I get the feeling next
seasons seats at the Energy Solutions Arena will be discounted ... greatly.
The Jazz will not become the T-Wolves. They may not be good, but I doubt that
bad. In the long run this trade will help the Jazz. And they still might make
the playoffs this year. If not, then I say go Thunder in the playoffs.
I'd like what Doctor J is having...its like cool aid...but it only makes you
delusional...@CJ MilesByron Russel > CJ Miles right
now...but...i do have to admit...the first three losses the Jazz have...where in
CJ played more than 30-35 mins...he did..well...a tad over mediocre...just a tad
bit over...he did average around 20 a game...but what did it
translate?...Losses...maybe...CJ should start...but...let Raja finish the
game...we dont want CJ coming in...and just jacking up threes like there won't
be a next game..
What was the highest seed the Jazz have had in the last 5 years? I think 6...We were a lightly above average team with Williams and Boozer. This team has
not been a top 5 team in the NBA for 15yrs. Face the facts, rebuilding is better
to start sooner than later.I like how everyone is wondering how we
are going to get a star back to SLC, the same way we have gotten all of them!
Through the draft! D-will is good, not great, he is a turnover
machine for a PG. O'Conner put himself in this situation by not retaining
Brewer, Korver, Mathews, but Boozer was gone either way. Take Booze out of that
lineup and the Jazz are not very good. I personally like Jefferson's game better
than Boozers (because he tries to play defense).I will take 3
lottery picks any day over one 2-time all star who hates being in SLC any day.